From 8.5 percent in 2000 to 3 percent this year

Tooele County’s growth rate has slowed since the start of the decade, when it was the fastest-growing county in the state, according to population estimates compiled by the Utah Population Estimates Committee.

The county grew by 3 percent from July 2007 to July 2008 — a rate that puts it 13th of the 29 counties in the state in terms of population growth. That follows on the heels of a 4 percent county growth rate in 2007.

Growth over the last decade reached a high in 2000 and 2001 with 8.5 percent and 6.9 percent increases, respectively, making Tooele the fastest growing county in the state for two consecutive years. The county’s growth spurt began back in 1996. From 1990 to 1995, the county averaged 2.2 percent growth — behind the state average of 3 percent. Then in 1996, the county posted a growth rate of 4.2 percent, compared to the state rate of 2.4 percent.

Growth started slowing after the 2000 peak of 8.5 percent, which was 3.5 times higher than the statewide growth rate of 2.4 percent in 2000. Although the rate of growth started to decline, it kept well ahead of the past average and the statewide growth rate until 2004, when the growth rate dipped to 2.3 percent, which matched the state growth rate for that year. The next year, 2005, the growth rate jumped back up to 4.1 percent and stayed in the 4 percent range until dropping to 3 percent this year.

Nicole Cline, currently the economic development director for Tooele County, was in charge of the Tooele County Planning and Zoning Department back in 2000 during the heavy growth phase.

“The growth back at the beginning of the decade has been described as Tooele being discovered by the Wasatch front,” she said. “Gas was cheaper back then, land cost less than in Salt Lake County and we had rural feel that appealed to a lot of people. Recently, however, net migration has slowed down. It was inevitable that at some point our growth would slow down, and the economy did that. We may see a little more growth when the economy picks up, if gas prices stay down.”

The Utah Population Estimates Committee, an arm of the Governor’s Office of Planning of Budget, estimates that over the last 10 years, Tooele County has grown from 35,476 in 1998 to 58,214 as of July 2008 — a 64 percent increase. That places Tooele County second only to Washington County, which experienced 71 percent growth over the last 10 years. The overall growth for the entire state during the same time period was 29 percent.

Over the last 10 years, in-migration has been the largest contributor to the county’s population growth, consisting of 60 percent of the growth compared to 40 percent attributable to new births. Migration reached a peak in 2000 with 2,530 net move-ins compared to 939 new births, for a rate of 2.7 move ins for each birth. In 2008 that ratio became only 789 move-ins to 1,163 new births for a ratio of 0.67 move-ins for every birth.

Statewide, the growth rate in 2008 was 2.2 percent — down 1 percent from last year. Tooele County’s growth rate of 3 percent for 2008 is also down 1 percent from last year’s 4 percent. In the last 10 years, Tooele County’s growth rate has been at or below the state growth rate only once, when both tied at 2.3 percent in 2004.

Four counties — Salt Lake, Daggett, Beaver, and Wayne — actually had more people move out than moved in during 2008.

The U.S. Census Bureau develops population estimates for incorporated cities every year since the last census. Taking a look at their figures for 2000 to 2007, the fastest growing city in Tooele County was Grantsville, with 40 percent, followed by Tooele, with 31 percent. Stockton, Rush Valley, and Vernon all sit near third place with 29, 28, and 28 percent respectively. Ophir shows up in fourth with 17 percent for their net gain of 4 new people. Wendover, Utah, is last with 5 percent growth.

Vicki Griffith, a broker with Prudential Utah Real Estate in Tooele, thinks gas prices have had an influence on the county’s growth rate this year.

“Earlier this year things did slow down as gas prices went up,” she said. “There weren’t as many people from Salt Lake looking to move out here to Tooele. But with gas prices coming down, I’ve already seen a change in that trend. Three months ago there were 30 homes under contract in Tooele. Today there are 100.”

Griffith anticipates that with the change in gas prices and the economic growth still going in the county, growth rates of five to six percent are realistic in the near future.

The Utah Population Estimates Committee expects continued growth in the county to continue at an average rate of 3 percent per year. By 2010, estimates show the population of the county will be 63,777, 91,849 by 2020, and 120,000 by 2030.

Tim Gillie: tgillie@tooeletranscript.com